Mayor Karen Bass and Councilmember Nithya Raman are locked at 40% apiece in the Los Angeles mayor's race, according to a new poll released Oct. 28.

The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, surveyed 2,197 likely city voters online in English and Spanish between Oct. 19 and Oct. 25. It carries a margin of error of about three percentage points. Nineteen percent of respondents remain undecided ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

The tie marks a dramatic reversal. In September, the same Berkeley IGS/LA Times poll found Raman leading Bass 39% to 28%, an 11-point gap.

Pratt voters tipped the scale

Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, told the Times that Bass's surge was driven largely by conservative voters who backed Republican Spencer Pratt in the June 2 primary. Bass nearly doubled her share of Pratt voters, jumping from 22% in September to 41% in October. Raman's share among that group dropped to 14%.

"The Pratt voters are the biggest insertion," DiCamillo said. "The question remains, since we're looking at Pratt voters, 45% remain undecided. Will they vote?"

In the primary, Bass received 34% of the vote, Raman 29% and Pratt 26%. Neither Bass nor Raman had cleared 40% in any Berkeley IGS/LA Times poll before this one.

Both candidates face image problems

Bass's favorability remains underwater. Sixty-five percent of likely voters view her unfavorably, a figure largely unchanged from September and tied to her response to the January 2025 wildfires, according to the poll. Only 32% view her favorably.

Raman's numbers moved in the wrong direction. For the first time this cycle in a Berkeley IGS/LA Times poll, her unfavorable rating topped her favorable rating: 49% unfavorable to 42% favorable. In September, her unfavorable rating was 39%.

The LA Times reported that weeks of attacks from the Bass campaign appeared to drive that shift. Bass seized on a video in which Raman urged viewers to "stop fascist liars" as a photo of Bass appeared on screen, and on Raman's debate remark citing former LAPD Chief Daryl Gates as a "gold standard" for immigration non-cooperation. Raman later apologized for the Gates reference.

Demographic and geographic shifts

The poll found Bass gaining ground among Latino voters. In September, Raman led among Latinos 45% to 21%. By October, Bass climbed to 40% and Raman fell to 43%, putting them within the margin of error. DiCamillo attributed part of that change to older Latinos making up a larger share of the likely electorate.

Black voters consolidated behind Bass, 71% to 13%, up from a 48%-to-20% lead in September.

In the San Fernando Valley, Bass flipped a deficit into a lead. Raman led there 34% to 26% in September. Bass now leads 44% to 33%.

Raman holds a commanding edge among younger voters. She leads 69% to 15% among likely voters ages 18 to 29, the LA Times reported. But as of Oct. 28, only 13% of eligible voters between 18 and 34 had submitted ballots, compared with 47% of those over 65, according to Political Data Intelligence, a research firm.

Campaigns trade jabs

Alex Stack, a spokesperson for Bass's campaign, said in a statement to the Times: "The momentum in this race is with Karen Bass."

The Raman campaign countered in a news release that Bass "hasn't led a poll since August" and that an aggregate of publicly available polls still showed Raman ahead.

On Oct. 26, billionaire developer Rick Caruso, who lost to Bass in the 2022 mayor's race, announced he would vote for Bass. "For the love of LA, I must put the past behind me," Caruso said in a statement, according to NBC Los Angeles.

Reducing homeless encampments was the top priority voters cited for the next mayor, chosen by 43%. Public safety and affordable housing tied for second at 29% each.

Polls close Nov. 3. Voters can find their nearest voting center at lavote.gov.