Paramount leaving California could wipe out up to 58,000 jobs and $21.2 billion in annual economic output, a leaked study warns. A critical court hearing on a $1.88 billion bond request is set for Sept. 24, and a $7 million-per-day financial penalty starts Oct. 1.

The Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC) study, dated Sept. 10 and leaked by Politico, found that a full Paramount relocation would permanently eliminate between 28,990 and 57,980 full-time jobs across all California industries, The Wrap reported. The losses extend beyond film and TV production to supply chains and household spending.

Paramount commissioned the study from the LAEDC's Institute for Applied Economics, Yahoo Finance reported. The company has named Georgia, Tennessee and Texas as potential relocation destinations.

Under the study's lowest-impact relocation scenario, California would still lose between $1.01 billion and $2.03 billion in economic output between Oct. 1, 2026, and Sept. 30, 2031, along with 2,750 to 5,550 job-years.

The study also quantified what the state stands to gain if the merger goes through. If Paramount holds to a promise to release 30 films a year after acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery, the combined company would generate between 1,020 and 2,760 California jobs and up to $1.01 billion in economic output over the same five-year period.

The report lands as Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison faces a financial clock. Starting Oct. 1, Ellison owes Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders roughly $7 million per day in ticking fees until the $110 billion merger closes, according to court filings reported by Variety. Those payments could reach $1.3 billion by the time a trial wraps in April 2027, according to Law Commentary. If the deal collapses entirely, Paramount faces a $7 billion termination fee.

Paramount has asked U.S. District Judge Araceli Martinez-Olguin to require the 12 states and the Writers Guild of America (WGA) suing to block the merger to post the $1.88 billion bond covering those costs.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta and 11 other state attorneys general filed the antitrust suit in July, alleging the merger would reduce competition among major studios. The WGA filed a separate suit arguing the deal would pressure writers' wages. Paramount says regulators in 69 jurisdictions have cleared the transaction and that the two U.S. lawsuits are the only remaining obstacles.

In August, word leaked that Ellison told his 12-member executive leadership team during an hourlong lunch on the Paramount lot that his goal was to keep the company's 30,000 jobs in Southern California. He cautioned that if Bonta would not negotiate a settlement before the ticking fee kicks in, he would move operations out of state.

Bonta canceled a planned meeting with Paramount in late August, accusing the company of leaking and misrepresenting prior discussions. "Not only did Paramount leak the alleged substance of settlement discussions, but they misrepresented these discussions, demonstrating a lack of good faith," Bonta told Spectrum News on Aug. 24.

Magistrate Judge Thomas S. Hixson has since ordered both sides to hold a two-day settlement conference at the end of October.

The leaked study also warned that converting Warner Bros.' Burbank soundstages to commercial or residential use would "permanently strip" California of production infrastructure built over a century. The antitrust trial is set to begin March 2, 2027.